Midterm math: Five GOP districts rated safe after redistricting push
The Cook Political Report shows that most newly drawn Republican-leaning seats are now toss-ups, while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secures a fourth term in Brazil.
By Sakura McCarthy ·
Voters in fifteen newly drawn House districts may face closer races than Republican leaders anticipated. The Cook Political Report rates only five of those districts as likely or solid Republican. The remaining ten are classified as toss-ups or leaning Democratic. This shift complicates the strategy adopted by President Trump last year, which aimed to secure House control by favoring the GOP in redistricting.
Republican strategists planned to avoid the historical pattern of heavy midterm losses. Instead, they now face the prospect of spending millions on seats that were intended to be easy wins. NPR's Tamara Keith reports that one factor in this reversal is the timing of the line drawing. The boundaries were based on the 2024 electorate supporting Trump. Since that election, his support has weakened among young and Latino voters.
Several Democratic incumbents targeted by the new maps have stayed in their seats to fight for reelection. A Republican strategist involved in midterm races noted that redistricting creates new battlefields but does not create outcomes. The strategist spoke to NPR but was not authorized to speak publicly on the specific results.
In Brazil, leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff election. He defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, by more than 4 million votes. This result marks the first time since 1989 that a candidate who finished second in the first round went on to win the presidency. Lula is now set to begin a fourth term.
NPR's Carrie Kahn says Lula's victory slowed the advance of right-wing governments in Latin America. Seven conservative presidents were elected in the region over the past 18 months. In the final weeks of his campaign, Lula focused on the threat that a return of the Bolsonaro family to power would pose to Brazilian democracy.
The Cook Political Report assessment comes as campaign budgets are being finalized for the fall. The disparity between the planned safety of these seats and their current ratings forces Republican campaigns to adjust spending plans. Meanwhile, Lula prepares to return to office after a campaign centered on stabilizing the country's democratic institutions.
Source: NPR
