42 Million Vote Early as Democrats Outpace Republicans
University of Florida data shows a partisan gap in early turnout that mirrors 2018 patterns, though experts caution that late voting may shift the final tally.
By Sakura McCarthy ·
More than 42 million Americans have already cast their ballots for the 2026 midterm elections. According to the University of Florida Election Lab, current turnout levels align closely with the 2018 cycle, a period often described as a "blue wave." The lab indicates that voting enthusiasm is currently higher among Democrats than Republicans.
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, stated that the U.S. may be approaching a record for midterm participation. He noted that 2018 held the highest turnout rate for a midterm election since 1914. "It’s possible that we will beat the 2018 turnout rate," McDonald said. "But there are uneven patterns of turnout."
The disparity stems from a sharp partisan divide. Democrats represent 44% of early votes, while Republicans account for approximately 31%. McDonald explained that registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are highly engaged, whereas registered Republicans are less so. "Registered Democrats, unaffiliated, those people who don’t have a party registration, are engaged at the moment. But registered Republicans are not as much," he said.
Demographic shifts also stand out. McDonald observed that early voting rates have risen for young voters and minority groups. He predicted this would create the most diverse electorate in U.S. midterm history. "We can see high levels of engagement among African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans, but we don’t see as much among whites," McDonald said.
However, the data has limitations. States such as Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska do not rely heavily on early voting. In these locations, only about one-third of votes are cast before Election Day. This contrasts with states that feature high volumes of mail or in-person early voting, making early data less representative of the final outcome.
McDonald acknowledged that Democrats hold an early lead but warned that Republicans typically recover ground on Election Day. Final results will not be announced until polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
Source: KCTV5
