Moldova now leads Ukraine in EU accession race, new roadmaps show

European Commission documents indicate that Moldova has surpassed Ukraine in the process of joining the European Union. The roadmaps for both candidate countries, released as part of the annual enlargement package on 4 November, outline distinct trajectories for the coming year. While the introductory sections for Kyiv and Chisinau are nearly identical, the specific targets assigned to each nation show a clear gap in progress.

The Commission maintains an internal ranking of the four countries leading the integration process. Ukraine currently holds the fourth position, trailing Moldova. Sources cited in an analysis by European Pravda state that the Commission has prepared a positive statement on the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report for Moldova. This report covers the fundamental benchmarks of the accession process and is expected to be sent to member states for approval soon.

The difference in pace is most visible in the negotiation chapter closures. The roadmap for Moldova projects the closing of nine chapters in the first half of 2027. It plans for an additional 16 chapters to be closed by the end of the year. This totals 25 chapters within a twelve month period. By comparison, the plan for Ukraine envisions starting to close chapters only at the end of the first quarter of 2027. The analysis describes this timeline as ambitious given Kyiv's current speed in implementing the benchmark report.

The Commission unveiled the annual enlargement package on 4 November. The package assesses the progress of ten candidate countries. Ukraine was placed among the four nations that made the greatest progress. However, the report noted that Ukraine's improved assessment, particularly in fighting corruption, was achieved despite the actions of Ukrainian authorities rather than because of them.

The roadmaps do not predict when the leading candidates might conclude all accession negotiations. This omission suggests Brussels hopes Ukraine will accelerate its reform efforts. The documents serve as a guide for the next phase of talks, setting specific expectations for both neighbors.

Moldova is described in the documents as well advanced in meeting interim criteria. The positive outlook for Chisinau contrasts with the cautious timeline for Kyiv. The Commission aims to keep both countries on track, but the current metrics favor the smaller neighbor in the short term.

The next step involves member state approval of the interim benchmark report for Moldova. For Ukraine, the focus remains on accelerating the implementation of reforms to meet the end of the first quarter deadline for chapter closures.