South Texas counties that flipped to red in 2024 are key to 2026 midterms

Texas politics have shifted in recent years, and the direction of that shift now hinges on a bloc of voters in the state's southernmost counties. Latino voters constitute a major portion of the electorate, and their choices will determine the outcome of several races in the upcoming midterms.

According to the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, nearly 6.3 million eligible Latino voters reside in Texas. They make up approximately 31.7% of the state's total eligible electorate. David Crockett, a political science professor at Trinity University, notes that this demographic represents a growing share of the population and the voting pool. He describes the group as a swing vote that can be earned by either party.

The political trajectory of South Texas has changed rapidly. Webb, Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential election. By 2024, all four had shifted to Republican majorities. In Webb County, the Republican share of the two-party vote rose from 38.2% to 51.1%. In Starr County, that figure increased from 47.5% to 58%. These figures include all voters in the counties, not just Latino residents, but they illustrate the scale of the regional change.

Economic factors are driving much of the voter sentiment. A recent survey indicates that 86% of Latino registered voters view the economy as very important to their congressional vote. Specific concerns include gas prices, housing costs, and the price of everyday goods. Crockett points out that these pressures affect Latino families similarly to other demographics. He notes that when gas prices exceed $4 a gallon, the impact is felt broadly across households.

Immigration enforcement remains a central issue for this electorate. A poll found that 56% of Texas Latino voters believe the current administration's enforcement efforts have been excessive. Despite these views, Democrats currently lead among Latino voters in major state races. In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, 52% to 43%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, 55% to 37%.

However, preferences vary significantly by geography. A survey by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs found that rural and urban Latino voters hold different views. Rural Latino voters favored Abbott over Hinojosa, 60% to 36%. They also supported Paxton over Talarico, 56% to 24%. In contrast, urban Latino voters favored Hinojosa over Abbott, 58% to 41%. This data suggests that Latino voters in Texas do not share a single set of political priorities.

Crockett suggests that voters may reassess their choices after observing how elected officials govern. He explains that when officials make unpopular decisions and conditions become rockier, they can lose some of the support they gained in presidential elections. For some voters, the focus is on whether candidates remain involved in their communities and deliver on promises. Zoe Zamora, who first voted in 2024, says she values candidates who are actively engaged in their communities rather than just making promises.

Turnout is another variable. Midterm elections typically draw fewer voters than presidential contests. Pew Research Center data shows that Latino voters are more engaged in this year's cycle than they were at a similar point before the 2022 election. The survey also found that Latino voters supporting Democratic congressional candidates report higher motivation to vote than those supporting Republican candidates. Crockett identifies Bexar County and South Texas as critical areas to watch, especially in congressional districts affected by redistricting.

The challenge for Democrats is to build on their current support while competing in communities where Republicans made gains in 2024. Republicans must maintain their recent gains while addressing voter concerns about the economy and immigration. The results in South Texas will indicate whether the region's shift toward the Republican Party continues or reverses on Nov. 3.