Israelis face uncertain path to new government after Knesset election

The results of the Israeli general election have been officially tallied, but the identity of the next prime minister remains undetermined. The vote fixed the composition of the 120-member Knesset without handing a clear mandate to either major camp. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, both failed to secure a majority of seats. The political initiative now rests with Arab-led parties, which won a historic 19 seats.

The immediate task for party leaders is to assemble a coalition holding at least 61 seats. This requirement creates a complex puzzle for both Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Each side must find partners willing to make compromises that may anger their own bases. If no agreement is reached, Israel will face new elections early next year. Netanyahu’s current government would serve in a caretaker capacity until then.

One potential path involves Eisenkot forming a government with the Arab-led parties. On paper, this alliance would yield a 67-seat majority against Netanyahu. Even if those parties stayed outside the cabinet, they could support a minority government. However, this arrangement carries high political risk. Israel’s Arab citizens, who comprise 20% of the population, are Palestinians whose families remained in the country after the 1948 war. Many Jewish Israelis view them with suspicion due to their ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. An Arab party has joined a governing coalition only once, in 2021, and that government lasted approximately 18 months.

Netanyahu is already framing any such alliance as a threat to Israel’s Jewish identity and national security. He aims to pressure Eisenkot’s right-leaning allies to reject the partnership. Netanyahu also has an alternative strategy: building a unity government with Eisenkot. This configuration would also provide a 67-seat majority. It would place Arab-led parties, ultranationalist groups, and ultra-Orthodox factions in the opposition. Such a government could address issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox and stabilize the economy. However, Eisenkot and his allies promised not to govern with Netanyahu after blaming him for the security failures of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. They also cited his ongoing corruption trial and alleged undermining of democratic institutions. Past opposition leaders who joined Netanyahu’s governments saw their political support drop sharply.

Netanyahu may also attempt to poach defectors from the opposition bloc. He could target right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom support nationalist policies like expanding West Bank settlements. Bennett and Lieberman have vowed not to partner with Netanyahu, but they find it difficult to align with Arab parties. They also oppose the military exemptions demanded by Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies. Eisenkot has fewer options for poaching, as Netanyahu’s Likud party and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have remained fiercely loyal over the years.

If no coalition forms, Israel will likely hold new elections early next year. This outcome could hurt Netanyahu’s opponents, who had momentum before the vote. They benefited from tens of thousands of Israelis voting from abroad, a group that might not return for a second election. Netanyahu would gain time to strengthen his position. Smaller right-wing parties that missed the threshold for Knesset entry effectively wasted pro-Netanyahu votes. Their supporters might switch to larger far-right parties in a future vote, further boosting the prime minister. After a similar stalemate in 2019, Israel held five elections in three and a half years.