Talarico Leads Early Returns in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico holds an early lead in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with results showing a double-digit advantage in Tarrant County, a major bellwether suburb. This early performance places the Democrat ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in a contest where Democrats hope to flip the seat. The results stand out because Tarrant County has historically favored Republicans in statewide races.

Polls closed at 7 p.m. Central Time on Tuesday, November 3, though voters in El Paso had until 8 p.m. to cast ballots due to the Mountain Time Zone. Early voting records showed more than 40% of eligible Texans voted before Election Day, setting a record for non-presidential years. As of the evening count, the Associated Press had called the State Board of Education District 13 race for incumbent Democrat Tiffany Clark, who leads Republican Carlos Garza 81% to 19% with 67% of votes counted.

In the Panhandle, Talarico’s numbers exceed expectations set in previous cycles. The Democrat holds 40% of the early vote in Potter County, half of Amarillo, a figure that far surpasses the 30% Beto O'Rourke received in 2018. In Randall County, which includes the rest of Amarillo, Talarico leads with 29%, compared to O'Rourke's 20% in 2018. In Brazos County, home to Texas A&M University, Talarico maintains a nearly 10-point lead in early returns, a margin that suggests Republicans will need strong Election Day turnout to close the gap.

Down-ballot races show similar patterns for Democrats. In the race for Agriculture Commissioner, Democrat Clayton Tucker leads Republican Nate Sheets 58% to 42% with 18% of votes counted. In the Rio Grande Valley, Democrat Thomas Ray Garcia leads Republican Victoria Hinojosa 54% to 46% in the State Board of Education District 2 race. That seat is currently held by Republican LJ Francis, who lost the GOP primary in March. The Valley remains a focal point as Republicans attempt to capitalize on recent redistricting efforts.

Republican candidate Jon Rosenthal is outperforming expectations in several counties previously dominated by the GOP. Rosenthal leads opponent Bo French in Denton, Tarrant, Corpus Christi, and Fort Bend counties. In Nueces County, Democrats hold leads in most federal and state races, with Talarico at 55% and Hinojosa at 54%. However, Republican congressional incumbents face pressure in the area, with Rep. Michael Cloud holding just 31% of the early vote and Rep. Henry Cuellar’s successor, Rep. Jaime Flores, at 46%.

At the Ken Paxton watch party in Dallas, the mood turned cautious as screens displayed Talarico’s leads in Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties. Attendees watched from a room featuring a cannon prop, a symbol Paxton used to represent traditional Texan culture. Meanwhile, at the Talarico headquarters in Austin, the atmosphere remained festive with a live band and ice cream treats as early nationwide leads appeared on screens. The night is still young, with key counties like Montgomery yet to report full early vote totals.

Democrats currently hold 62 seats in the 150-member Texas House and need to gain 14 seats to claim a majority. Early returns indicate that Talarico’s strong performance in suburban areas may assist Democratic candidates in down-ballot races. In Williamson County, state Rep. Caroline Harris Davila trails in House District 52, while in Fort Bend County, state Rep. Gary Gates is narrowly behind his Democratic opponent. Results continue to trickle in from across the state as the counting proceeds.