Texas Senate Race: Democrats Target Paxton's Home County

Liz Slack, a lifelong resident of Collin County, cast ballots for Kamala Harris and Colin Allred in 2024. She is now planning to vote for James Talarico this fall. Slack describes herself as a center-right voter who attended Baylor University and attends weekly Bible study. She said she feels her values have drifted away from the Republican Party as it moved further right.

Slack is part of a group of college-educated suburban women that Republicans have struggled to retain. The party has offset these losses by attracting non-college educated voters of color. However, rapid suburban growth is making areas like McKinney pivotal for control of the Texas Senate.

Collin County is the most populous county in the United States where a statewide Democratic candidate has not won this century. Talarico must win this county to secure a victory. No federal Democrat has won the county since Lloyd Bentsen defeated George H.W. Bush in 1970. Talarico began his final statewide tour in Plano on the eve of early voting. Ken Paxton visited a Tex-Mex restaurant in Allen on the first day of early voting, a location he has visited multiple times this cycle.

The county's population has more than doubled since 2000, reaching nearly 1.3 million. Four of the five fastest-growing cities in the nation are in Collin County: Celina, Princeton, Melissa, and Anna. Over half of residents hold a bachelor's degree. The median household income is $121,600, the second highest in Texas.

Demographic shifts are driving the political change. The population is approximately 45% white, 23% Asian, 17% Hispanic, and 12% Black. This includes the state's second largest Asian population. Shelby Williams, a former county GOP chair, noted that the area has been getting purpler for a decade. She said Republicans previously turned the county from blue to red, but Democrats are now chipping away at it.

In 2018, Ted Cruz won the state by less than 3 percentage points while holding Collin County by 6 points. In 2024, Cruz won his Senate race by 8 points but held the county by only 5 points. Ross Hunt, a GOP operative, said economic opportunity drives growth, attracting voters for jobs rather than ideology. He called Collin County a dark horse for Democrats.

Tensions have risen among South Asian communities. Republican Bo French posted a photo of South Asian students storming a football field in September, calling the situation worse than imagined. He did not apologize after facing calls from his own party. Jeremy Sutka, the county Democratic Party chair, said early voting data shows increased turnout in neighborhoods with significant Indian populations. Nabila Mansoor of Asian Texans for Justice said the community has become more activated in response to anti-Indian rhetoric.

Brittany Black, a Democratic candidate for a statehouse district in Frisco, said corruption is a top issue in her area. She ties her local race to the statewide impeachment of Paxton, who was acquitted by the Senate. Slack said she has not fully accepted her switch to the Democratic Party. A friend recently told her at dinner to just accept it.